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Heart inflammation cases in young men higher than expected after mRNA vaccines (reuters.com)
466 points by smaili 10 days ago | hide | past | favorite | 392 comments





Very interesting given one of the lesser known complications of covid can be myocarditis in otherwise healthy individuals with few or no other covid symptoms.

In fact, it’s likely the incidence of covid-induced myocarditis is vastly underreported given it often shows no symptoms and can only reasonably be diagnosed with a cardiac MRI which is not always widely available or advised for less-serious heart conditions.

I was diagnosed with myocarditis last year and despite a negative PCR test around the onset of symptoms (light-headedness, heart palpitations, fatigue) was strongly suspected to have contracted covid.

I was lucky enough to get my first dose of the moderna vaccine a few months back and beside a few days of increased heart palpitations I’ve had no trouble as far as I’m aware, does make me wonder about getting that second dose though.


The human heart has a lot of ACE2 receptors, which is what Covid binds to.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7239191/

I wonder if you can get myocarditits both from exposure and the vaccine. Covid is in your heart tissue, triggering an immune response. When you get the vaccine, your immune system is going to ramp up even further to deal with this Covid in your heart. This would only affect people who had prior Covid exposure it would seem.


Wonder if this will lead to an increase in pericarditis over the next couple of years. I had pericarditis when I was a teen. The explanation from the cardiologist, which probably was dumbed down for me, was that sometimes a foreign body like bacteria or a virus gets hidden in the lining of the heart and when it later gets exposed to the immune system, it causes the pericardium to get enflamed, which squeezes the heart. How long do spike proteins (SARS-CoV-2 or vaccine created) hang out if they make it to the heart? We probably don't know yet.

> How long do spike proteins (SARS-CoV-2 or vaccine created) hang out if they make it to the heart?

As far as I understand it, the vaccine doesn't work like this. It tells your immune system "hey this is what a SARS-CoV-2 spike protein looks like, attack it if you see it".

So the vaccine wouldn't cause the heart damage, the vaccine does (intentionally) ramp up your immune system to learn about this new threat, which it will then attack. It doesn't bind to ACE2, it teaches your immune system to look for bad things that can.

If there is still Covid in your heart due to prior exposure, your immune system is going to go there to assist. This would cause inflammation, but intentionally. As you noted, this immune system response is correct behavior.

So that's a long way of saying the inflammation is from the virus, not the vaccine. That's why I was thinking this may only occur in vaccinated individuals who had prior exposure to Covid.


The covid spike protein binds ace2 so the immune response to bind the spike could bind ace2 as well. Normally this is mitigated by a self selection filter but it is not out of the question that you could develop an autoimmune response.

Would it? My naive guess is that the immune response is an anti-ACE2 match. So it would bind to COVID spike protein, not the ACE2 receptor.

The spike protien binds to ace2 receptors, so the immune response may be more likely to bind to ACE2, which also binds to ace2 receptors, but that isn't a given because the part on the spile the immune response targets don't have to themselves match with parts of ACE2.

There are two variants of the vaccine:

One is mRNA (?) variant that gets into your cells and makes them produce just the spike protein. This lets your immune system find this protein out and make antibodies.

The other contains instead a partially destroyed viruses which trains the immune system directly on all their parts - the shell, the spikes, etc.

I don't remember which company makes which kind but both are in production.


Your insights are not entirely correct. There are more than two types of covid vaccines.

Coronavirus Vaccines - An Introduction by JAMA is a good starting point. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMc3vL_MIeo

COVID-19 Vaccines goes into greater detail. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35Idb_lCU4o


Chinese vaccine (SinoVac, CoronaVac) uses an inactivated whole SARS-CoV-2 virus.

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-how-do-in...

"... In an inactivated vaccine, the pathogen is killed or modified in such a way that it is unable to replicate. It cannot cause disease and is, therefore, suitable for those with a compromised immune system.

The inactivation step usually involves heat, radiation, or chemicals to destroy the pathogen’s genetic material, which stops it from replicating.

Inactivated vaccines can trigger a strong immune reaction, but it is usually not as strong as the reaction that live attenuated vaccines can produce. Due to this, a person may need booster shots to ensure ongoing protection.

The COVID-19 vaccines that Sinovac, Sinopharm, and Bharat Biotech have developed are inactivated vaccines. ..."


The mRNA vaccines don't produce the entire spike protein, just a portion of it in order to target the antibodies towards that specific portion of the spike.

How much of the spike protein is coded for?

Almost all of it except the part where it joins to the rest of the virus, where it's been modified to give it structural stability and stop it collapsing.

the "partially destroyed" virus is not a covid virus.

example the johnson&johnson vaccine [a vector vaccine] is composed of attenuated [part destroyed] human adenovirus [thus non reproductive] that has an insert of conformationaly stabilized spike sequence. this makes ease of shipping and handling, but lacks good efficacy if you are immune to the adenovirus


I think the J&J vaccine uses an adenovirus that can't reproduce in human cells. It's missing something or other it need to reproduce and only grows in a specialized cell culture.

yes you have it right.

>which is what Covid binds to.

You mean the SARS-2 spike protein binds to the ACE receptors. mRNA vaccines create the spike protein so it's going to work in exactly the same way as natural infection. Recent research from Japan is showing that the spike protein from vaccination is not staying at the injection site it can get into the blood stream (and causes blood clots as are widely reported), crossing the blood brain barrier and affecting the heart. As a healthy 30 year old I would prefer to take my risk with covid than take these vaccines. I've done enough research to know what I'm talking about and the smartest people I know have reached the same conclusion.


>As a healthy 30 year old I would prefer to take my risk with covid than take these vaccines.

As an exhausted 34 year old who spent the last year field-monitoring vaccine trials, I would love to see the sources that informed your position.


> spent the last year field-monitoring vaccine trials

As an adult that was vaccinated, thank you for doing your part to get us all here.


Alright. As an exhausted 37 year old, I'm going to stick my neck out and explain why I've chosen to put myself at the back of the queue for vaccines this time around. I'm sure the authorities will find some way to force me to take it at some point, but refusing these vaccines is a rational position. You may not agree with it, but it's based on rationality and logic. So here are my reasons.

Firstly, I don't believe COVID related science is reliable. This isn't some conspiracy theory I picked up from YouTube. I developed this belief by actually reading a lot of scientific papers, or perhaps I should say "scientific" because it turned out that on close inspection almost all the papers I chose to study carefully were pseudo-scientific and sometimes fraudulent. I can count the ones that had no obvious errors or deceptive practices on the fingers of one hand. In no cases have there been any consequences for the perpetrators and in some cases the scientific establishment came together to cover up what happened.

At first I couldn't quite believe it and thought maybe there was some selection bias in the papers I was being exposed to, so I went back in the archives to review older papers from the world of public health (Zika, Swine Flu, AIDS). It turned out they were just as bad. I've written quite extensively about the problems in my prior comments here on HN [1], [2], [3], [4] and I also wrote a report that ended up being sent to the British Cabinet [5], so won't go into detail again, but suffice it to say I now have a large set of go-to examples for cases where scientists have been acting in ways scientists aren't meant to act.

A very small number of these problems are now coming into the public eye. For example in recent weeks a whole lot of people were surprised to see the lab leak hypothesis go straight from "debunked conspiracy theory" to Biden ordering it to be investigated, apparently without any intermediate points. Fauci has admitted on record (in the New York Times) that he lied in order to manipulate people's behaviour at least twice (masks, HITs) and thus he's very likely to have done it more often. These aren't actually my go-to examples of academic fraud because I tend to focus on the UK, where things are just as bad, but I'm sure every country has equivalents at this point because the issues aren't specific to Fauci, they appear to be cultural within public health.

A good example of this problem with vaccines specifically is the way the CDC is inflating their apparent effectiveness by changing the definition of COVID itself for vaccinated people [6]. That is, if someone took a test and presented the results twice in succession, and told one official they had been vaccinated and the other that they hadn't, the first could say they didn't have COVID and the second that they did. This sort of data manipulation is rampant, it's just one example.

So the scientific estabishment is not produced reliable knowledge. Many people still disagree with this, but they are going to eventually lose that debate because the evidence of problems is overwhelmingly strong.

Now, to vaccines. The risk of serious problems from taking these vaccines is low in absolute terms, clearly, as otherwise we'd be seeing mass die-offs by now given the very high speed and rates of vaccination. However, to make a rational decision you have to compare that to the risk of suffering serious problems from COVID. Even if the risk of both is low, if the risk of a cure is (for example) 50x higher than the risk of a disease, then the cure is worse and it's rational to take your chances with nature. For people in our age range this is especially important because the risk of suffering badly from COVID is negligible. There are far more dangerous things out there in our daily life. Average IFR estimates have converged on around 0.1% to 0.2%, which is already around the same area as seasonal flu, but those estimates must be multiplied by the chance of actually becoming infected in the first place and ideally age adjusted. I've been through multiple waves of COVID by now and not only never been infected, but nobody I know has caught it either. It seems quite plausible I will never catch it, vaccine or not. Many models were based on the assumption that nearly everyone will be infected sooner or later but those models fell apart under even the tiniest inspection, even before vaccines. And finally, it must be noted that the IFRs of 0.1-0.2% are based on a definition of death that is wrong and guaranteed to inflate the values (i.e. a virus that had been engineered to be entirely inert would still "cause" millions of deaths given how COVID deaths are defined).

All this added together means the risk of COVID to people like us is extremely low. And the risk of the vaccine?

Well, unfortunately we don't really know that. Knowing the risk relative to the risk of COVID for 30 year olds requires a level of data robustness and trustworthiness science has been unable to provide. For example VAERs is not a comprehensive database of all reactions, because reporting rates are much lower than 100% and it's unclear what the current highly politicized atmosphere is doing to reporting rates (probably suppressing them). What we do know is that there are simple and (by now) well understood mechanisms by which mRNA vaccines could create severe reactions.

The spike protein is, let's be clear about this, a toxin. If you were injected with sufficient amounts of mRNA vaccine for long enough you would die. Normally we're exposed to a dose of a virus that has spike proteins and causes production to start, but the virus gets stuck in the lungs and finds it hard to escape. Also, the dose may well be quite small. With the mRNA vaccines they're meant to stay in the shoulder muscle and eventually drain to a lymph node, but it seems that in some cases the person doing the injection may nick an artery by accident and end up injecting the vaccine straight into the bloodstream. Note that this is not meant to happen and studies into what does happen if this occurs have been occurring after the mass rollout of the vaccines. It appears the lipid nanoparticles also capable of crossing the blood brain barrier, where they may cause brain cells to start expressing spike protein and be destroyed - again, no studies of this have been done because both the mRNA adjustment technique and, more importantly, the lipid nanoparticles, are quite new. The trials were not completed, etc. The few studies that do exist are mostly in animals. At any rate, it can cause cells to be destroyed in places respiratory viruses would normally find hard to reach. [7] [8]

Is it possible vaccines are a lot more dangerous than we're being told? Yes, absolutely. No doubt at all. The standard retort to this is that it's a "conspiracy theory" but so what? Public health research is absolutely overrun with conspiracies, many of them aren't even well covered up. Certain specific subfields are nothing but conspiracies (looking at you, epidemiology). Lab leak hypothesis was described as a conspiracy theory, which thanks to China's evidence destruction it actually is by this point, but it's also almost certainly true. I hate to think about how many conspiracies there must be that don't get detected. The sort of people who try to deflect arguments by claiming they're "conspiracy theories" have come to look dumb and naive, because the things supposed "conspiracy theorists" say keep turning out to be true. Meanwhile the people who sacrificed every high minded principle to protect scientists from criticism are discovering they've been played.

Fundamentally, if someone is going to inject me with an extremely complicated substance that's specifically designed to make my body produce a toxin, after the normal safety studies have been bypassed, I want to double check what they're doing. If I can't because their work is filled with errors, it's perfectly understandable to conclude that maybe I'll put my faith in Mother Nature instead. Other people who have more trust in institutional competence can decide differently, and that's fine.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27231636

[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26769138

[3] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27245283

[4] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26836661

[5] https://plan99.net/~mike/epidemiology.pdf

[6] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27366386

[7] https://trialsitenews.com/the-covid-19-spike-protein-may-be-...

[8] https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2021/06/03/covid19-the-spike-p...


> Fauci has admitted on record (in the New York Times) that he lied in order to manipulate people's behaviour at least twice (masks, HITs) and thus he's very likely to have done it more often.

This one needs to be highlighted. Public officials, at best, have collective interest in mind, not individual interest.

I've seen the phrase "the risk still outweighs the benefits" thrown around a lot lately. I refuse to believe that this is an honest assessment, because the data just isn't there. During the trials (mostly done on healthy young individuals), absolute risk reduction hovered around 1%. That number is bound to have been higher during the second/third waves, but it's probably lower today.


So let's assume the science is bad, and policy is fraught with political motives, incompetence and distortion to persuade the public to behave in a way that policymakers assume (right or wrong) is in the collective benefit.

Now let's assume this has always been the case. At what point, do you ever trust a vaccine or public health policy in general? Whether it's a vaccine for polio, rubella, hepatitis, etc. at some point does the collection of bad science become voluminous enough to somehow equal good enough science?

If you believe data integrity issues are extreme, there's no way to calculate risk of vaccine vs no action. Your decision would depend on whether you trust your own research over the official policy.

But given that most of us have no formal education on the subject, no resources to conduct more accurate studies, no access to primary data sources, nor an educated peer review group to critically examine our analysis, the chances of major flaws and biases seems quite high.


These are great questions that I'm struggling with at the moment. Certainly, my chance of taking vaccines in future has gone down a lot. However, mostly I've already taken all the ones I'd ever need including vaccines against the diseases you name, so the question is somewhat moot. In the end there's no real substitute for just weighing up the risks in each case the best you can.

"If you believe data integrity issues are extreme, there's no way to calculate risk of vaccine vs no action. Your decision would depend on whether you trust your own research over the official policy."

Correct. I do actually trust my own research over official policy at this point, but, the difficulty of mounting an alternative data based argument is definitely there. That's why I didn't try but explained my policy via social explanations. However, we can make some assumptions that let us use at least a small amount of data. We can assume that whatever official statistics do exist are manipulated or exaggerated to increase the apparent attractiveness of being vaccinated. There's enormous amounts of evidence that this sort of manipulation is happening, so it means those statistics put an upper bound on things. The truth may be that they're less attractive, but it's unlikely that they're moreso. Thus if even the official statistics, when examined closely, aren't convincing, it seems reasonable to conclude the argument must be very weak indeed.

"But given that most of us have no formal education on the subject, no resources to conduct more accurate studies, no access to primary data sources, nor an educated peer review group to critically examine our analysis, the chances of major flaws and biases seems quite high."

I think this is the source of the disagreement. As far as I can tell, public health researchers and officials are characterized by:

1. No formal education in anything biological or medical. Tedros is of course a former African communist official put in his position by China but even academics can turn out to be untrained. Prof Ferguson, whose bogus predictions created lockdowns, was originally a theoretical physicist and has no qualifications in anything biological or medical. In fact nothing in his team's work has any biology in it. That's totally normal: the people who predict disease and suggest policy frequently have no training in it, they're just data analysts ("mathematicians" to the press, to most corporates they'd be junior business analysts). I touch on this in my presentations to the British government ministers: you can read all the relevant papers without once encountering any actual biology or even any theory of disease. Even when they have training it's irrelevant, because they don't use it.

2. No resources to conduct accurate studies. Most existing studies are done by academics in their living rooms at the moment, so they don't actually have more resources than I do. Again, public health is not medicine. Public health consists primarily of academics and bureaucrats, especially in the current environment, they are mostly just working-from-home Office jockeys. Plus if existing studies are mostly useless then that's still useful to know, as it informs what to do next (i.e. nothing). A basic principle is that if there isn't clear evidence that it's useful to do something, the right response is not to look desperately for something to do (that's the so-called "politician's fallacy") but rather leave things alone.

3. The same access to data sources as everyone else. The primary data is all available and when you read in the press or government announcements about COVID studies, almost always those are simply analyses of publicly available data sets.

4. Peer groups of people who are just as poorly educated as them, with the added problem of groupthink. A big part of why the research is so corrupt is the academic need to please their in-group without looking un-educated or confrontational, so the absence of such groups is an advantage rather than a disadvantage. And at any rate, there are plenty of people out there debating these things in forums that are freer and more open than the average scientific peer group.

Overall I think the chance of flaws and biases in self-done research is lower than amongst the professionals assuming you're willing to sit down and wade through a lot of data and reports, and to stick to the scientific method. The quality of the "professional" stuff is so unbelievably low that as long as you're not actively lying to yourself all the time, and as long as you know how to use Excel, you stand a good chance of doing a better job. Not because the world is filled with high quality amateur scientists but because the world is filled with low quality professionals.


I believe these are persuasive arguments to trust policymakers less but not to trust non-professionals more.

Your work may be exceptional but the signal to noise ratio on public forums especially on subjects that have been politicized is just too high.

I would be curious to see what solutions exist for quality peer review that doesn't suffer from group think. Possibly providing anonymity for reviewers and cash incentives?


If by professional you mean specialist, then the set of all non-specialists is very large. There are certainly many professional people within that set who are out-of-field but smarter than the people within it, given the tiny size of most academic fields.

I think anonymity for reviewers and cash incentives are a great idea, but that already exists, it's a market. I don't think we need any clever or new solutions here. Simply stripping science of public funding would force it to convince large numbers of people (via markets) that the science is being done well and actually going somewhere.

It would also bring scientists within the purview of all the mechanisms that have evolved to handle fraud in the private sector, mechanisms like prosecutions, lawsuits, regulators, consumer reviews, trademarks and so on. Consider the huge difference between how Theranos was handled vs how the fraud coming from universities is handled.


> I'll put my faith in Mother Nature instead.

This isn't so much for you, but for anyone that doesn't know how to respond to this. This is how mother nature works: Human population gets genetic variability in their immune response. New virus hits the scene. Some people's immune system, with its (stability | random changes) offers them better protections. The others die. Those that die do not reproduce (dep. on age). Children of survivors have "better" immune system. Rinse and repeat. So generally speaking, going with mother nature means: People who don't have the right genes for this virus should die.


A couple of quibbles

>The spike protein is, let's be clear about this, a toxin. If you were injected with sufficient amounts of mRNA vaccine for long enough you would die

By that definition everything in the world is a toxin - inject enough and it'll kill you. In practice the spike protein doesn't. I mean I had the pfizer three weeks back - it makes your arm sore and stiff and probably has similar effects elsewhere in the body if it travels but it's basically gone in a week and you're back to normal.

>IFRs of 0.1-0.2%

It'd got to be higher than that. In Mexico, population 127 mil, excess deaths are about 622k which is 0.49% of the population dead. If you guess half of them caught it, it puts the IFR about 1%. Obviously mortality varies by age etc. (excess deaths http://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/estimation-excess...)


I suppose that's technically true, but what I mean is that injecting e.g. water would not cause cell death. Yes if you attach yourself to a IV water pump then you can kill yourself by totally de-balancing your body chemistry, but water is not itself a toxin. It doesn't cause cell death or attack the body in any way.

By the way, the fact that the body can flush it out doesn't mean it's not a toxin. Alcohol is gone from the body within hours of getting drunk but it's still a toxin, technically speaking.

In contrast, the mRNA vaccine works by getting cells to do things that cause them to be destroyed by the immune system ASAP. Even small amounts are thus (cyto)toxic and the question is how much can the body tolerate.

One of the things that makes me uneasy about the mRNA tech is there seems to be very little discussion or research about dosages, and in particular how cell death levels compare between getting vaccinated and actually being infected with the real thing. This would seem to be fundamental because at some level, the vaccine is actually creating the same problem inside the body that the virus is, the only difference is that the virus can self replicate whereas the mRNA does not (except apparently in the case of so-called "self-amplifying mRNA" vaccines, see below). Thus the question of dosage is critical. If being infected with the virus causes 10x less cell death than the vaccine then I want to take my chances with the virus. If the vaccine causes 10x less cell death than a real viral infection, then it looks better. As ultimately, it's cell death and the fight to destroy those cells that makes people sick.

Such numbers are (nearly?) impossible to find. Vaccine dosages are very different between the different manufacturers. The Moderna vaccine has a dose more than 3x higher than the Pfizer vaccine, for example (100 µg vs 30 µg), which is itself 3x higher than the dose for the Curevac vaccine (12µg).[1] It's a bit unclear how these very different numbers were arrived at or what they're being calibrated against.

W.R.T. the SAM vaccines, also in [1] we find the following text:

"The other type of mRNA vaccines, SAMs, do not only encode the target antigen but also RNA polymerase encoding ‘self-amplifying’ factors derived from Alphavirus ... These are in turn transcribed to many coding mRNA molecules, leading to prolonged and enhanced antigen expression ... The two SAM vaccines in clinical development are nCoVsaRNA by the Imperial College London and ARCT-021 by Arcturus/Duke-NUS (both as mRNA-LNP)."

It's very unclear to me, as a layman, how this artificial "self amplifying RNA" that incorporates elements from a virus is so very different from an actual virus, given that the SARS-CoV-2 is itself basically RNA surrounded by a coating in a form that can self-replicate. Traditional vaccines are virus based but the virus is inert. The new vaccines appear to be ending up at the same end-point but without the whole making it inert part.

It'd got to be higher than that. In Mexico, population 127 mil, excess deaths are about 622k which is 0.49% of the population dead.

The number comes from meta-studies that examine a large range of IFR studies. There is a lot of variance between them - they don't all arrive at the same value, presumably because IFR is inherently difficult to measure. Infected people who don't feel sick enough to report are the dark matter of epidemiology.

However, excess death values are quite tricky to evaluate because they're excess relative to some model of what should have happened in an alternate timeline where the event in question never occurred. For example you can calculate an excess death value for Sweden of zero by making one or two plausible assumptions, or you can calculate a higher value using equally plausible assumptions, and who is to say which is correct? Ultimately you can't know what would have happened otherwise, only extrapolate from the past and try to guess. Some of those extrapolations look suspect on examination (e.g. using fixed averages, or very short timespans), just like everything else around this topic.

[1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8032477/


Toxin has a real meaning and its not the meaning you are using. mRNA as such isn't toxic, its how your cellular machinery functions. Its removed from your body because that's the mechanism your body uses to produce the effect size it wants and not more, as mRNA production is used as a communication mechanism by your cells. A real toxin disrupts your normal cellular fucntion and / or causes direct damage in some way.

> It's very unclear to me, as a layman, how this artificial "self amplifying RNA" that incorporates elements from a virus is so very different from an actual virus, given that the SARS-CoV-2 is itself basically RNA surrounded by a coating in a form that can self-replicate.

For one, we can implement protocols to ensure the mrna we are generating contains the instructions we want, at the effect size we want. We could go the non mrna route and grow it as a virus, but that is going to be less accurate, more costly, and take longer. We could also just let people develop natural immunity, which will also work. People will get varying effect sizes, and vary from barely immune to dead. Obviously no vaccine and no virus would be the best outcome. But we don't get that choice.


I'm not sure what distinction you're drawing. Expressing spike protein and being destroyed by the immune system is a disruption of the normal cellular function. No, mRNA in general is not toxic but the mRNA vaccines specifically absolutely are. That's the entire point of them, to train the immune system by actually giving it targets to practice on. However the targets are our own cells, in this case.

We could go the non mrna route and grow it as a virus, but that is going to be less accurate, more costly, and take longer.

These are things that concern vaccine makers for understandable commercial reasons, but what you're saying is that there's effectively no difference to the recipient beyond the fact that the artificial self-replicating mRNA might be higher "quality" in some way.

Let's put it like this: given the apparently low probability of being infected (for people my age, in a way that we actually notice, at current prevalence levels etc), most of us actually can choose "no vaccine and no virus". Or put another way we can choose between guaranteed cell damage from vaccines, or the chance of cell damage from virus the exact probability of which is some integral of prevalence, individual risk behavior, how quickly you get treated (e.g. with ivermectin), and how many people around you are vaccinated. To me it looks like a good tradeoff to not take the vaccine, especially when so many other people are: the chance of avoiding cell damage entirely is really quite high, and I like my body spike-free. Stories like the Reuters article this thread is about just reinforce that decision.


> Expressing spike protein and being destroyed by the immune system is a disruption of the normal cellular function.

That’s how the immmune system works in general, with or without the vaccine.

> what you're saying is that there's effectively no difference to the recipient beyond the fact that the artificial self-replicating mRNA might be higher "quality" in some way

It’s the difference between taking a known dose with quality control or an unknown dose with no quality control.

> Let's put it like this: given the apparently low probability of being infected (for people my age, in a way that we actually notice, at current prevalence levels etc), most of us actually can choose "no vaccine and no virus".

Let’s put it like this. you can take vaccine and have an extremely rare chance if pericarditis, or eventually get the virus (it’s not going away) and have a higher chance of pericarditis.


There are many viruses in the world that have never been wiped out, and which I've never caught, nor have any other people I know.

The assumption that eventually SARS-CoV-2 will infect 100% of the population is a common modelling assumption. When I went looking for validation of it, I couldn't find any.

As for known dosages, as I say above, I couldn't find any information comparing dosages or cell death levels of vaccines vs actual viral infections. That would certainly be helpful to know, assuming such reports were reliable.


> When I went looking for validation of it, I couldn't find any.

It's unlikely you will find validation outside an entry-level text book for virology or epidemiology. From my understanding it's a fundamental assumption that's easy to verify: ALL viruses with a similar transmissibility profile as SARS-Cov-2 (high R0, aerosols) have become endemic, that includes e.g. seasonal influenza and all other human coronaviruses.

That's the reason seasonal influenza is not a big issue most of the time, because we already had it in the past (or a related strain) and our immune system is primed. This happens usually as children and is the reason why both young children and their parents are a lot more ill than the average.

A completely new influenza strain, however, has a similar pandemic potential as SARS-Cov-2, and one hypothesis why the 1918 influenza was so deadly for younger generations is that they likely had not encountered it before, while the older had.

In fact, if SARS-Cov-2 wouldn't go the same route as basically all similar viruses have done before, it would be a big surprise. Try to speak to an expert in the field, preferably a virologist or an epidemiologist.

Somewhat related: it's a common cognitive bias to trust self-generated knowledge more than the knowledge from others.


It's unlikely you will find validation outside an entry-level text book for virology or epidemiology

Absolutely nothing in modern epidemiology is validated against real world data as far as I can tell, and virology isn't concerned with the course of epidemics, so I doubt this very much.

The problem this assumption faces (and it is as you point out, only an assumption) is it quickly runs into definitional and logic issues. That's a very common problem in epidemiology and public health as far as I can tell. Viruses evolve, and so when talking about whether they can eventually infect the whole population you have to very carefully consider:

1. How fast they evolve.

2. How fast they spread.

3. How much evolution is required to make something a "new" virus vs an "old" virus.

4. What those evolutions do to disease which is what everyone actually cares about.

If you don't have a very firm grip on these things (and epidemiology doesn't) then you can get into a situation in which by the time a virus has infected "everyone" it's no longer the same virus at all, and thus cannot be said to have actually infected everyone. All the talk of different COVID variants is pointing in this direction. Taken to an extreme it boils down to "everyone will get infected with a virus at some point" which isn't an interesting statement.

Somewhat related: it's a common cognitive bias to trust self-generated knowledge more than the knowledge from others.

Indeed it is, and scientists are very often guilty of this: they reject any and all negative feedback that comes from people "out of field", even if it's extremely relevant to what they're doing. For example rejecting feedback by computer scientists of the form "your program does not work" because computer science isn't the same thing as epidemiology.

But in this case I actually don't trust self-generated knowledge more than the knowledge from others, because I don't claim to have any superior knowledge of epidemiology. I just know the people who claim to be experts, actually aren't.


> For example in recent weeks a whole lot of people were surprised to see the lab leak hypothesis go straight from "debunked conspiracy theory" to Biden ordering it to be investigated, apparently without any intermediate points.

I absolutely believe this was from a lab leak and I also closely follow the science.

The question is, why would you want a potentially man-made virus (via gain of function research) in your system at all?

With the vaccine, you teach your immune system to see Covid-19 right away and take care of it at first sight.

Without it, you have to GET Covid-19, have it embed itself inside all of your vital organs, then have your immune system hopefully slowly learn and take care of it. Meanwhile it is sitting in your heart, liver, lungs, kidneys and pancreas doing damage that is coming to light in more and more studies.

Your an adult. Your choice, but in my mind this is a poor choice.


I think there's a common assumption in some of these replies that eventual infection is a P=1.0 event.

This is a common claim by public health authorities and scientists routinely put this assumption in their models, but there's no clear backing for it. And if you look at the history of outbreaks of respiratory viruses, actually they don't infect everyone.

If you relax the assumption that the choice is (virus | vaccine) to be a more accurate (vaccine | {virus | nothing}) type condition, the vaccine looks less attractive. Phrased another way, we can:

1. Get a virus that appears to have been leaked and/or enhanced by incompetent scientists, and their incompetence was then denied and covered up.

2. Get a vaccine that may or may not have been developed by incompetent scientists, but if they are incompetent then for sure there will be/currently is another coverup.

3. Do nothing. The expected likelihood of this is unclear, partly because despite decades of research epidemiology can't predict case curves for a respiratory virus, but given my lived experience so far the chance of remaining healthy seems high.

Clearly, for our bodies the best result is to have no virus and no vaccine. mRNA vaccines were hard to develop because the body treats foreign RNA as very dangerous and has lots of mechanisms to destroy it, hence the chemical manipulations required to bypass those mechanisms.

You're saying that whilst scenario (3) is clearly attractive, the chance of it happening is so low that it's not worth considering. I'm saying that I haven't seen any evidence that this is true, and I've seen evidence that it's not true, and at any rate the cost of losing this bet is that with very high certainty I get a nasty bug and feel bad for a few days. Well, OK. I've done that before. Also feeling wiped out for a few days is, presumably not coincidentally, a very common reported side effect of the vaccine. More reasons to take a gamble and go for scenario (3).

In practice of course all this is distorted by government action. My expectation is that I will eventually take it because government scientists are determined to push collective solutions over individual solutions like Ivermectin, and they can make life arbitrarily painful in their quest to make hold-outs submit. My hope is that if that does eventually happen, there will be more data, more certainty and doctors will have more experience with side effects.



Herd immunity threshold.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/vinay-prasad/90445

Late last week, Fauci told the New York Times that new science had changed his thinking on the herd immunity threshold -- but he also admitted that his statements were influenced in part by "his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks."

"When polls said only about half of all Americans would take a vaccine, I was saying herd immunity would take 70 to 75 percent," Fauci said. "Then, when newer surveys said 60 percent or more would take it, I thought, 'I can nudge this up a bit,' so I went to 80, 85."

This example is important because Fauci is admitting here that he lied to the public about a value that had a supposedly scientific basis, in order to encourage people to take vaccines out of a sense of collective responsibility.


All that effort and so little actual understanding. This is a pretty sad comment on the degree of scientific and political understanding, brought eloquently but no less wrong for all that.

I've read all your comments in this thread and all I can say is if this is the smartest forum on the planet and you are our prime example of critical thinking then we're in much worse shape than I thought we were. I'm not going to comment on each and every one of those but I'll leave this one general comment instead.

So you're afraid of vaccines, don't understand in basic principle even how they work, cherry pick your 'facts', get some of them hilariously wrong and manage to weave all that together to support your preferred conclusion: that you won't be vaccinated.

I'm fine with that: it makes you an anti-vaxxer, and there will always be a percentage of the people out there that make this decision based on whatever flawed reasoning they will find.

But just come out and admit it, don't bother with all the pseudo scientific justification of your position. And be grateful to all of those that will get vaccinated so that you too will indirectly be protected.

Some takeaways for you:

- you don't understand toxicity, it's definition or application to vaccination

- you don't understand the active ingredients of the various vaccine options in principle

- you don't understand the active ingredients of the particular COVID-19 vaccines

- you don't understand the definition of IFR

- you don't understand how politics work

- you don't understand how risk estimation works

- you don't understand how medical trials work, and what kind of shortcuts can be responsibly taken during an emergency

- citing a bunch of stuff that you apparently do not understand does not make your point any stronger

I could go on but I won't, suffice to say that if this were a discussion about some programming problem you'd be shut down pretty hard because that happens to be HNs core expertise. This is the kind of nonsense you get when laypeople are going to do their own research about a field in which they have zero experience trying to support some vague pre-conceived outcome.

As a layperson as well, but one who has come a little bit further than you did in their understanding of this field: you are so clueless I really don't know what I could say to support your effort while at the same time indicating that your particular brand of cluelessness is borderline dangerous: a lot of your readers will know even less than you do and will lap this up, possibly because it supports their inner discomfort, fear of needles and so on.

It highlights one thing for me with extreme clarity: it's a good thing that we managed to eradicate a bunch of very nasty diseases before social media came around because if we change a couple of words you can apply your comment to each and every vaccine that was ever released. And the world would look a lot worse than it does if that had happened.

Count your blessings: you live in an era where within 12 months of a new disease for which your immune system may not have a response ready can be created, tested and mass produced. That, and nothing else is what stands between us and a much more serious impact on our lives, the economy and ultimately our humanity.

Get vaccinated.

And stick to stuff you have actual expertise about.


Would you care to refute any of his arguments? You spent several hundred words just to arrogantly say "You're wrong" over and over, with no additional substance beyond a few insults.

No, exactly that and reading comprehension failure on your part.

This is a nonsensical statement. What are you trying to say?

thank you so much for this writeup

I appreciate your comment.

> I'm going to stick my neck out and explain why I've chosen to put myself at the back of the queue for vaccines this time around.

I'm not getting vaccinated because I think I had "Early Covid", which I define as a case of SARS-CoV-2 before there was a test to diagnose it. Someone on Twitter said the timeline promoted by the media is impossible [2]; Michael Burry (MD in The Big Short [4]) pointed out that December 2019 blood samples with SARS-Cov-2 showed "#containment was never possible" [3].

> For people in our age range this is especially important because the risk of suffering badly from COVID is negligible.

Bad medicine dramatically increases the possibility of dying from a SARS-CoV-2 infection, no matter your age.

Good medicine for bad cases of SARS-CoV-2 is the anti-serotonin drug Cyproheptadine [0], which are useful for pulling people out of their death spirals.

More vulnerable people wouldn't be put into their death spirals if doctors remembered that oxygen in excess is toxic, but we have to work with the doctors we have. "is this pure (toxic) oxygen, or the oxygen with the antidote?" should be asked by all patients who are given oxygen to worsen their body's ability to use oxygen [1].

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27365696 and https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26964750

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22993262

[2] "The #Corona crisis began with a panopticon of absurd events, improbable coincidences and outright lies. Time for a review of the impossibilities." - https://twitter.com/theotherphilipp/status/13649545484277022... and a reply, "The timelines from first realization of the virus to isolation/sequencing to diagnostic test kit are impossible. The test kits were prepared for an expected event." - https://twitter.com/EndCanada/status/1364973703080083465

[3] https://twitter.com/TaxiCabJesus/status/1334382030952353792

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry


Please don't think that because you have had covid once you can't get it again, nor that the 2nd time won't be any worse than the first. That is not the case.

Although the immunity from having had covid is about the same as having had a vaccine.

> I'm not getting vaccinated because I think I had "Early Covid", which I define as a case of SARS-CoV-2 before there was a test to diagnose it.

There is a very high chance you can get Covid-19 again, hence why the vaccines are going to require boosters.

If you want a dangerous, man-made virus hanging out repeatedly in your vital organs, that's your choice. I'd much rather prime my immune system to handle it via a vaccine so I don't have to have it in my heart, lungs, kidneys, pancreas, etc.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7239191/

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41575-020-00389-y


The worst part of all this is the needless destruction of a lot of Science’s social capital.

Society is not going to solve any of its big problems if Science is viewed as just another source of political rhetoric.


> As a healthy 30 year old I would prefer to take my risk with covid than take these vaccines.

Unfortunate that you're also unilaterally forcing everyone you come into contact with to take that same risk if you are infected without realizing it.


> everyone you come into contact with to take that same risk

how come so if those "everyone" got vaccinated? I mean all the risk groups who has clearly higher risk from covid than vaccine should definitely go for vaccine. The rest - personal choice of risk. And as a healthy 49 years old, i'm taking my chance with covid and have no plans for vaccination (i was always laughing at anti-vaxxers, yet seeing all misinformation and propaganda (the stench of USSR strength propaganda is just overwhelming) around covid i think i'll pass this one)


> (i was always laughing at anti-vaxxers, yet seeing all misinformation and propaganda (the smell of USSR strength propaganda is just overwhelming) around covid i think i'll pass this one)

No, you weren't. A common false-flag (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_flag) attack involves presenting oneself as a member of an opposing viewpoint in order to find adherents for the desired viewpoint.

The tell is your use of the words "misinformation" and "propaganda." People who tend to levy such claims also tend to share more of it: https://www.colorado.edu/today/2020/06/17/who-shares-most-fa... - "The paper, in the journal Human Communication Research, also found that people who lack trust in conventional media, and in one another, post misinformation more often."

I was always pro-vax, and that hasn't changed with this vaccine.


Responding to skepticism with hostility does nothing except make you feel better. And further convince the skeptics that you're wrong. After all, if you'll try to tell them that their own lived experience is a lie, why should they believe anything you tell them?

> Responding to skepticism with hostility does nothing except make you feel better. And further convince the skeptics that you're wrong. After all, if you'll try to tell them that their own lived experience is a lie, why should they believe anything you tell them?

I hear you, though it's not an effort at convincing the OP employing manipulative communication.

It's an effort at highlighting the manipulation—with references—so that vulnerable readers are informed and inoculated against it. Unlike OP's comment, scientific skepticism simply seeks information, insight, and references in order to inform their own opinions rather than making assumptions on faith.


>the OP employing manipulative communication.

> ... it's an effort at highlighting the manipulation—with references—so that vulnerable readers are informed and inoculated against it.

as i've already shown (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27467720) you invented the "manipulation", ie. you generated misinformation, and you're clearly acknowledging here that you're using that misinformation in order to affect "vulnerable readers", ie. for propaganda purposes.


> as i already pointed out you invented the "manipulation", ie. you generated misinformation, and you're clearly acknowledge here that you're using that misinformation in order to affect "vulnerable readers", ie. for propaganda purposes.

I was clear in providing citations. At this point, you need to provide your own backing for all the other vaccines you've supported, such as the flu vaccine, MMR, etc. if you want to lend credibility to the idea that you're not broadly anti-vaccine.

Thing is, even if you're against new-technology vaccines, we have numerous old-technology vaccines following the same paradigms used to make the vaccines I mentioned above (AZ, JJ, etc). Being broadly anti-covid-vaccine essentially acknowledges holding generalized anti-vaccine opinions since the majority of vaccines on the market make use of legacy manufacturing techniques.

I don't see this conversation between you and me being any more productive. Sock puppetry (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sock_puppet_account) is a pretty established pattern, and it's easily defeated by asking people to provide their sources, something you haven't done with your assertions against the COVID-19 vaccines.

Cheers, mate. I wish you the best.


>Thing is, even if you're against new-technology vaccines, we have numerous old-technology vaccines following the same paradigms used to make the vaccines I mentioned above (AZ, JJ, etc).

Those two are viral-vector vaccines, which isn't old-technology. They're almost as new as mRNA vaccines.


Good catch; I'd conflated viral vector with inactivated vaccines. The plurality are inactivated, but nonetheless, not the majority.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_COVID-19_vaccine_autho...


Per that image, none of which are available at all in the US, Canada, Australia, or most of Europe, so...

>Being broadly anti-covid-vaccine essentially acknowledges holding generalized anti-vaccine opinions since the majority of vaccines on the market make use of legacy manufacturing techniques.

You're assuming everyone has the same knowledge base as you and then inferring their decision making process from that. More likely is that people have formed broad opinions about a new event based on scattered information. That's the sort of information that would be helpful to provide, not Wikipedia pages to generalized propaganda techniques.


> You're assuming everyone has the same knowledge base as you and then inferring their decision making process from that. More likely is that people have formed broad opinions about a new event based on scattered information. That's the sort of information that would be helpful to provide, not Wikipedia pages to generalized propaganda techniques.

Hey, thanks for that. This helped me rethink and understand the entire conversation.

I'm not sure how much more effective new information or facts would be either, in hindsight, but it did remind me of an old publication (not research, I should add) discussing the use of personal narratives and stories to fight vaccine misinformation: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.4161/hv.24828

Possibly effective against other forms of misinformation too. Sadly, I'm too buried in the facts and not enough of a storyteller to be effective here.


you've got caught generating misinformation, and now you're clearly deflecting.

>I was clear in providing citations.

All the citations/links you brought in were to build a house of cards of your pet narrative on top of a factually wrong false statement you generated about me out of nothing. You generated that false statement in order to be able to apply those citations. Without that foundational false statement your citations didn't make sense.

Now, once you've got caught (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27467720) by me showing that you just casually generated that misinformation, you're trying to drown that fact under the pile of the long winded meaningless word-abouts like this gem here:

>Being broadly anti-covid-vaccine essentially acknowledges holding generalized anti-vaccine opinions since the majority of vaccines on the market make use of legacy manufacturing techniques.

It is a classic device of propaganda - equating risk-benefit analysis unfavorable in a specific narrow situation (a healthy very low risk group in this case) with blanket non-acceptance ("broadly anti-covid-vaccine"). Like back in the USSR - "You don't like the absence of hot water?! You're anti-Soviet!" It is strange that you didn't notice that propaganda device description among your "manipulation" describing links.

It is pretty clear that you're trying to paint me, against the already demonstrated facts, as an anti-vaxxer in order to undermine whatever i was saying. I think you'll be able to find on your own a link describing that fallacy.


You should apologize to trhway. He's proven that his statement was correct with a comment he made here on HN in 2015 where he does indeed take a (very) pro-vax position.

> You should apologize to trhway. He's proven that his statement was correct with a comment he made here on HN in 2015 where he does indeed take a (very) pro-vax position.

Done.


>The tell is your use of the words "misinformation" and "propaganda." People who tend to levy such claims also tend to share more of it

you said it yourself. It is kind of ironically not surprising that you levied the above mentioned claim and actually posted the misinformation and propaganda yourself - see below.

>No, you weren't.

you really don't know, yet you're making with complete confidence such a completely false blatantly contradicting facts[0] statement just because it suits your narrative

>A common false-flag ...

and helps you to advance your agenda. Thus your post is a clear example of misinformation and propaganda. Not sure that you're doing it intentionally, probably you're just caught up in that mob hysteria.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8860543


Hey, I figure the downvotes were probably a consequence of tone, but your quoted post is a robust defense of your prior assertion about your position on vaccines.

(in all honesty, I clicked the post a few times and wondered why you were linking it, but it only clicked after mike drew attention to it.)

Anyway, I apologize for doubting. I still don't understand your position regarding the current batch of mRNA vaccines, but I can appreciate that you're not an anti-vaccine generalist.


It's very amusing you were actually able to show yourself laughing at anti-vaxers right here on HN, thus winning the argument against eganist completely. You should probably have called that out more clearly. I guessed what might be in the link but it would have been good to quote it.

> It's very amusing you were actually able to show yourself laughing at anti-vaxers right here on HN, thus winning the argument against eganist completely. You should probably have called that out more clearly. I guessed what might be in the link but it would have been good to quote it.

My guess is that what drew so much ire was the tone and presentation. Similar to "thus winning the argument against eganist completely" when it was less of an argument and more of an immune response to common patterns that proved in this case to be a false positive.

But yes, simply going with quoting the past post, drawing attention to it very clearly in text ("Please see linked one example of a past post where I've declared my own pro-vaccine views"), and then using that past position to contextualize their current aversion would've been great for constructive engagement.

Water under the bridge. Either way, sorry trhway; glad you're not anti-vax, but hoping to win you over to the mRNA side (though feel free to laugh at me on my way to the grave if I die of vaccine induced long term effects. I guess I'll have earned it at that point).


"everyone" currently excludes a large number of people who would otherwise like to be immunized for a variety of reasons (age, medical risks), and vaccines are not 100% effective

> And as a healthy 49 years old, i'm taking my chance with covid and have no plans for vaccination

so you would rather be at between a 1 in 500 and a 1 in 250 risk of dying in your age group + a much higher risk than that of some long covid symptoms that are debilitating/unknown if they will ever get better vs. a 1 in a 1,000,000 chance you get something that might be bad but is likely survivable... I don't understand the anti-vaxxer "logic"


I don't necessarily disagree that the known risks outweigh the known benefits for that age group, but your numbers are way off.

You also have to consider that the absolute risk (the risk of catching Sars-Cov2 multiplied by the risk of COVID) is far lower with current prevalence.

In the end, you arrive at a low known risk either way. It then depends on how you weigh the unknown risks. There's a strong incentive to downplay risks of vaccination "for the public good" while simultaneously exaggerating the risk of infection. By posting these inflated/deflated numbers, you're playing your part, knowingly or not.


> You also have to consider that the absolute risk (the risk of catching Sars-Cov2 multiplied by the risk of COVID) is far lower with current prevalence.

and you are playing your part knowingly or unknowingly in possibly causing the mutation and spread of a new variant that is not effectively controlled by the current crop of vaccines which could lead to another lockdown and mass deaths.

When masks come off there will be a sharp uptick in unvaccinated people getting covid and dying... the current majority of people that get covid and die are the unvaccinated by a large, large margin. It's not going away and you will likely get covid if you are unvaccinated since it spreads so well and life is going back to maskless soon enough.


Again, you're making a speculative "for the greater good" argument. That's all fine and well, but that's a different question as to whether my personal risk outweighs the benefit or not.

We already have the situation that vector-virus COVID vaccines are likely deadlier to younger women than the virus itself. Of course, having all these women vaccinated may well have saved more lives in total, but it would still be immoral to recommend it to them, if their personal risk from the vaccination is higher than from the virus.

> When masks come off there will be a sharp uptick in unvaccinated people getting covid and dying...

In relative terms, but probably not in absolute terms.

> ...the current majority of people that get covid and die are the unvaccinated by a large, large margin.

That's neither here nor there. If you vaccinated 90% of the population, at an idealized 90% efficacy, half the COVID deaths would be in the vaccinated group. What does that tell you about individual risk? Nothing, because it doesn't take into account prevalence in a population that is 90% vaccinated.

I don't doubt that the vaccine is effective, but the absolute risk reduction, for my age group, at current prevalance is probably around 1% (like in the trials). In Israel, the vaccination rate is below 60%, but prevalence is close to zero.


Not OP but the chance of hospitalization in that age bracket is about 0.2% [0] There appears to be at least a 20% chance that post-vaccine someone of that age will feel rough enough to take medication [1].

People who are currently healthy choosing to avoid the risk of immediate short-term pain when presented with a small, remote gain seems like classic prospect theory!

[0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1122354/covid-19-us-hosp...

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/info-by-product/pfizer...


20% chance of feeling rough enough to take medication does not seem much higher than the human average. Without comparing to placebo it is meaningless.

They did compare it to placebo, plus, humans don’t compare to placebo they compare to their status quo condition.

you are conflating "rough enough to take a medication" with being "so sick you are in the hospital with covid." crazy comparison. I got my vaccine and the second shot hit me hard enough that I had to take some ibuprofen. Not a single regret and it wasn't that bad.

you are comparing apples to oranges.


I'm not conflating anything? I'm only pointing out, under prospect theory, people value avoiding a loss over a risk for a gain.

It's rational for someone who is currently healthy, in an age group with a 0.2% of COVID turning into anything more than a standard cold/flu, to turn down an immediate risk (orders of magnitude larger) that they will feel unhealthy for a couple days.


> in an age group with a 0.2% of COVID turning into anything more than a standard cold/flu

except that's not the statistic... that's the death statistic for that age group. the odds of getting sicker than cold/flu are higher still and you will get much much sicker than the vaccine will give most people.


It was the hospitalization rate, as cited, and the rest of your comment is unsupported conjecture...

Except that's misleading considering that hospitalization is not a prerequisite for death and the statistic in that group is higher than 0.2%

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics

the death rate in that cohort is 0.36% or about 1 in 300

14,387 deaths in 3,978,547 cases

considering that they are on the high end of that bracket the next higher bracket is about 1.3% mortality rate or about 1 in 100 though that houses the group up to age 64 so it's more likely closer to the 0.5%-0.8% mortality rate but that's interpolating the data so it's messy.


>between a 1 in 500 and a 1 in 250 risk of dying in your age group

your post is an example of the "logic" that is abundant and has highjacked the info space especially when it comes to covid. The numbers you use are aggregated across the whole age group and not adjusted for health status/risks. There are orders of magnitude difference of risk between different people with different health conditions even in the same age group.


There have been plenty of perfectly healthy people with low risk factors in that age bracket that have died from covid.

You're substituting anekdata for statistical data - just another example of the "logic".

> how come so if those "everyone" got vaccinated?

Well, for starters, the vaccine isn't available for anyone under the age of 12.


> I've done enough research to know what I'm talking about

The standard practice is for those making the assertion to provide their references or data. Since you've done the research, can you please link any published and peer reviewed research establishing that the health risks from the vaccine are within two orders of magnitude of the health risks from the virus? Including morbidity, mortality, etc.

> The smartest people I know have reached the same conclusion.

Can you please reference them as well so I can read their published content?



I mean, reading the discussion/conclusion via google translate, this seems to be a study on metabolism of the vaccine? Open to being fact-checked, but this doesn't seem related.

In any case, the only statement I found on health effects in the discussion/conclusion was "No toxic findings indicating liver damage were found in the rat repeated-dose toxicity test ( M2.6.6.3 )." but I don't speak Japanese and I'm sure using Google Translate is a very ineffective way of parsing research.


What I belive this might show (still trying to figure this out) is how the lipid nanoparticles from the vaccine are distributed in the body. Page 7 shows particularly high concentration in the ovaries for example. I think the idea of the vaccine should be that the intramuscular injection stays in the muscle and the spike proteins don't get into your blood, but this was never actually directly verified. What this study shows is that the vaccine lipid coating (and thus likely the spike proteins) get into your blood, which when binding to the ACE2 receptor can cause different kinds of damage. E.g. binding to platelets is what can cause clotting. I'm not sure about any of this yet, just started looking into it a few hours ago.

Given the sheer volume of doses delivered and the capability to detect clotting risks (az, JJ), the fact that clotting risk did not go up with biontech and moderna might throw a wrench into that hunch.

But even then, not seeing an indication of risk within two orders of magnitude of covid itself.


the fact that clotting risk did not go up with biontech and moderna might throw a wrench into that hunch.

There's no agreement on what's really happening. For example, clotting risk from the mRNA vaccines is supposedly the same as for the AstraZeneca vaccines, but governments across Europe already suspended the AZ vaccine due to clotting risks (supposedly). Therefore by implication, they would also consider the mRNA vaccines dangerous if their standards were consistent. Either the standards aren't consistent and the AZ blocks were political, or the claims that mRNA vaccines have similar clotting risks to AZ are wrong, but given the contradictory nature of many of the claims surrounding this topic - and given that you admitted you only just discovered some of the scientific discussion of the effects of mRNA vaccines - it may be worth dialing down your confidence slightly.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/blood-clots-as-prevalent-w...


I'm not convinced by "supposedly the same." Sure you can get blood clots after pfizer as well as after az but you can also get them after having a cup of tea as people get clots in general. I don't think there has been statistically significant data that pfizer etc cause extra clots, unlike az. (eg https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-vaccine-blood-clot-ris...)

The study in question is from Oxford University and claims equal rates. Indeed, it may be wrong. However that's kind of the point - this thread is full of people making claims about vaccine efficacy or safety, but for basically any claim you want you can just plug it into Bing or DuckDuckGo and immediately find scientific studies that appear to contradict it. Science can tell you almost anything and everything, it seems, so no big surprise that people find it hard to trust.

I agree with that, I'm just slightly worried because I can imagine complications being underreported due to the politicisation of the issue.

It might also move the risk/benefit of vaccinating children and people who already had COVID.


Bret Weinstein (evolutionary biologist), Robert Malone (inventor of mRNA tech), and Steve Kirsch (researching adverse reactions to covid vaccines) talked about this today on Bret's YouTube channel. It's somewhere between the middle and the end of the stream iirc.

I highly recommend watching the whole stream.

https://youtu.be/-_NNTVJzqtY


He is wrong to make such a claim without data.

However, absense of evidence is not evidence of absense, either.

The simple truth is that there hasnt been enough time to really understand the long term effects of covid, or the vaccine.

Anyone claiming otherwise is simply lying.


And no one understands the effects the Russell teapot orbiting Earth right now has on the human body, either.

Unlike the Russell Teapot, the claim on whether vaccines are safe, or not, is verifiable.

I am sure this is uncomfortable to many, but you are taking the position that many did take with tobacco, or asbestos. They were safe. Until they weren't.

Human life is limited in length. The burden of proof rests on those tampering with the natural (ie the human body) over the un-natural.

The counterfactual. Should we feed supermarket milk to babies ? At least in this case, milk is proven to be safe for humans long term. Would you give supermarket milk to babies ?

If you did, the burden of proving this is safe rests on you, not on the person stating they want to continue to provide breast milk to the baby


It seems that you are arguing that human life span being finite makes every medical assertion effectively testable, but it does not. You still don't have an infinite population and you still do not have an repeteable way to measure "life span".

And the claim that there is a "natural" and "un natural" order of things is as unscientific as it gets.

I am not going to expect anyone with a half brain to verify the health effects of mixing milk powder with and without a Bible below it, even though a large magnitude of people claim it has an effect. Nor I am going to ask for a full medical study to show that there is no difference.


>>>> You still don't have an infinite population and you still do not have an repeteable way to measure "life span".

I genuinely dont understand youe point here. Are you saying that 7B people arent enough to test every medical claim. Are you saying that because we cant determine with precision life span that we cant precisely understand medical results ?

>>>> the claim that there is a "natural" and "un natural" order of things is as unscientific as it gets.

The fallacy of misusing the naturalistic fallacy

According to the critique made, we should not claim that natural things are better than scientific experimentation. Yet, my original claim was not to use nature to derive a notion of how things "ought" to be organized. Rather, as scientists, we respect nature for the extent of its experimentation. The high level of statistical significance given by a very large sample cannot be ignored.

Nature may not have arrived at the best solution to a problem we consider important, but there is reason to believe that it is smarter than our technology based only on statistical significance.

The question about what kinds of systems work (as demonstrated by nature) is different than the question about what working systems ought to do.

We can take a lesson from nature —and time— about what kinds of organizations (such as human vaccines, or viruses) are robust against, or even benefit from, shocks, and in that sense systems should be structured in ways that allow them to function.

Conversely, we cannot derive the structure of a functioning system from what we believe the outcomes ought to be.

>>>>> I am not going to expect anyone with a half brain to verify the health effects of mixing milk powder with and without a Bible below it,

See above. It is not the same claim. Being cautious about taking actions you dont fully understand; is not the same as believing you understand certain actions


> Are you saying that 7B people arent enough to test every medical claim

There are conditions where there are currently single-digit known sufferers among thar 7B, far fron sufficient to adequately test even one claim about that condition or its treatment, so, yes, 7B people isn’t enough to test every medical claim.

> Are you saying that because we cant determine with precision life span that we cant precisely understand medical results ?

Since one of the questions about medical results is about effect on lifespan, the former would certainly imply the latter.


> Nature may not have arrived at the best solution to a problem we consider important, but there is reason to believe that it is smarter than our technology based only on statistical significance.

Funny. The two examples that you have used as "thought harmless but then found out to be harmful", tobacco and asbestos, are as natural _as it gets_. One is a leaf and the other is a rock. They have in fact been in use _literally_ since the STONE AGE. Dunno how to redefine "natural" to not include them without also excluding domestication, most cooking or practically all of civilization.

You can definitely take a lesson here. The "natural order of things" is either on the eye of the beholder and therefore useless as a scientific concept or outright amongst the most dangerous thing to happen to humanity, and hardly "smarter than our technology" which is what detected its harmfulness in the first place. Your choice.


Oh, it would probably be lethal. But luckily Russell claims the teapot is in a stable solar orbit between Earth and Mars, so we should be fine for now.

I understand the long terms effects of death.

That... doesn't make sense. You WILL get exposed to this virus. Worst case, the virus will be able to do the same and more without any prior training for your immune system. If you said "I'll try not to get covid" I'd say "Impossible but godspeed" at least your logic would be sound.

Absolutely this. What are your "smartest" friends saying about the billions of dollars invested and spent by other really smart individuals in developing these vaccines in the first place? I bet world class biologists and investors aren't doing it for the fun.

PS: If anyone is curious about the "real thing", I'd highly recommend you look up hospital documentaries on COVID IC units. There is one - unfortunately German only - called "Charité intensiv" which quite drastically showcases the extent of what you have to deal with when contracting COVID. Let me tell you it's quite a bit more than myocarditis.


This is a selection bias toward Covid patients who had to be hospitalized. Most Covid cases are mild and patients recover at home. The “extent of what you have to deal with” varies considerably.

I got covid last year, and this year got vaccinated, and if I repeated the scenario 1 million times I'd take the vaccine over the infection 1 million times.

You're not wrong, there have been some cases where Astra and JJ caused some blood clotting. From what I read somewhere (can't find the link), the thought is that spreading out the two shots might be helpful. I thought it was Canada that was considering doing this but might be wrong. They were thinking of giving the first shot and then waiting 2 months too give the second shot to younger people. I wish I could find the article.

I got the 2nd shot of Pfizer recently (14 days apart) and considering the first shot did nothing, the second shot wiped me out for 24 hours. I wasn't sick just real tired and had a terrible headache. Just sat around all day and had to take it easy. I was thinking if the spike protein was enough to do this to me, I can imagine having to deal with the viral load on top of it and I'm healthy and consider myself fit. So if you catch Covid you're going to deal with both the spike protein and the virus all at once. Better deal with one at a time and get the vaccine so if you do catch the virus at least your body has fought half the battle and can deal with it instead of not knowing what to do while the Viral load goes crazy. I was one of those folks who felt like I could handle it, my wife convinced me to get the shot and I'm glad I did.


I wonder if 14 days is a bit quick in terms of being wiped out after the second jab. I've had one jab - prob going to leave it longer.

> and causes blood clots as are widely reported

How did I manage to miss these "widely reported" clotting issues with the mRNA vaccines? Are you thinking of the extremely low-incidence clotting issues reported with the AZ and JJ vaccines, neither of which is an mRNA vaccine?

It may be worth mentioning that the CDC has specifically stated that TTS (the specific clotting disorder seen with the other vaccines) has not been seen with the mRNA vaccines: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/jj...

So where's this wide reporting of blood clots resulting from mRNA vaccines? Or, if that was not your intended meaning, could you clarify?


> Recent research from Japan is showing that the spike protein from vaccination is not staying at the injection site it can get into the blood stream (and causes blood clots as are widely reported), crossing the blood brain barrier and affecting the heart.

Please dr Cross, where's the link to these studies?


I would "take your chances" (quotes because it's both rare and temporary according to the linked article) with the vaccine rather than risk infection with covid: https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/the-hidden-long-term-cog...

Yeah, somewhat regret my closing comment there. I most likely will take my chances of a second dose over being infected.

Please do, and be well. Thank you for replying with that.

Very interesting! But I would rather just get infected. To each their own, I’m sure we can agree!

Deciding to get infected is not "to each their own". You will statistically get someone else sick and they might fare much worse than you. Be aware that you are not only deciding for yourself, but for others as well.

If so, they also have the choice to get vaccinated themselves. Also, I have yet to see any concrete data on how much the various vaccines reduce transmission. It would seem to me tehre isn't much difference between a person not displaying symptoms of Covid, and a vaccinated person.

If you haven't seen any data of reduced transmission it is because you are intentionally avoiding it.

Look ay the case numbers in the nations that are vaccinating at a high rate, if you don't know how to draw appropriate conclusions from that data then obviously you are not interested in forming an honest opinion.

The evidence is just sitting out there, everywhere, you don't even need a proper study.. although there are also many of those!


Reduced case numbers is not the same as reduced transmission. As the vaccines have only been tested to reduce symptoms, it would not be surprising that we are seeing fewer cases. In fact, it would be expected, as people don't generally test unless they have symptoms.

This is so hopelessly stupid I just feel sorry for you at this point.

If you think that the hospitals just magically emptied out and the virus is still circulating at the same rate as before vaccinations started in every jurisdiction that has significant vaccination rates you are hopelessly lost.

But I know you are not hopelessly lost, you are just not engaged in an honest discussion.


My turn to accuse you of dishonesty - intellectual, this time. All the vaccine developers have promised about the vaccines is that they will reduce symptoms, as I'm sure you are fully aware. Unless some later study is done that provides some more concrete data on exactly how the vaccine is achieving what it is, at the moment all we can say is that the benefits we see (reduced hospitalisations and deaths, as well as some amount of reduced transmission) are a secondary effect of that primary benefit.

In case you missed it - I am not denying that the vaccines have done good - I am just very carefully sticking to what the vaccine developers themselves have said about the vaccine, which does not include anything about reducing transmission.


https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/mounting-evidence-suggests...

Go ahead and wait for "absolute proof" or some other absurd standard to believe something about a novel virus to make up your mind, whatever. You concede in your comment "as well as some amount of reduced transmission", give it up already!

All along following the most obvious path that evidence has lead towards proven to be fruitful, here is another case.. in case you have missed it.


I concede nothing. From my original comment, "Also, I have yet to see any concrete data on how much the various vaccines reduce transmission.".

It would be nice if it does, and it is plausible that the vaccines do reduce transmission to some extent, but their primary route of action is to save lives by reducing symptoms.

Apparently demanding something better than the level of "evidence suggests" from your linked article (and even that is new news, which means we had no evidence at all until recently) makes me an idiot and worthy of derision. You are not helping the stereotype.

FWIW - how long do you call a coronavirs "novel", given it's fairly rapid mutation rate? At this point, Covid-19 is practically ancient.

And so far - your "obvious path", at least as it was implemented in the country I live in, is quite likely to cause economic and social ruin.


There has been evidence of reduced transmission for months, again you are not engaging in an honest evaluation of the evidence.

Most governments actually haven't followed the most obvious path in much of anything to do with this virus, that has been the source of most of the ruin.

Go get vaccinated.


You are apparently unable to recognise an honest evaulation when you see one. I've read the article you linked, and others. They all make statements like "evidence suggests", which is barely the first rung on the ladder of being able to make any conclusion from the study of a particular phenomenon.

If I had enthusiastically queued up to get vaccinated as soon as I was able where I live, I would have received a treatment (AstraZenica vaccine) that has since been withdrawn from my age group. Tell me how my caution has not been justified.

Just for fun - what governments have followed the "most obvious path"? There aren't many left, of the supposed golden list everyone liked to promote last year. Vietnam - apparently a fine example of what happens when we "all just wear a mask" - after months with deaths oddly flatlined at 35, they are now experiencing a dramatic rise in cases over the past few weeks. South Korea - has now been experiencing increases in deaths and cases over the last few months. The stats for Australia look good, but they continue to live under draconian measures, and have gained a reputation for allowing the rich and famous (including sports players) to publicly flout the rules. It's a similar story in New Zealand, and those last two countries also enjoy unique geographical and demographic situations not shared by many others (remote, sparsely-populated island nations).


I enthusiastically queued up to get AZ as soon as it was offered and now I will happily be getting a Moderna 2nd shot in a few days. Your caution has not been justified, the over-caution of the governments on these matters on the other has also not been justified. That's another thing that is pretty clear from publicly available information.

I made the absolutely correct assessment that the balance of probabilities was strongly in favour of the idea that mixing vaccines would be at least as effective as getting the same shot twice. A really good example of taking a most obvious path.

There are lots of jurisdictions that have done a very good job doing just very obvious things that work. Pretending that recent challenges or flare-ups negates the enormous areas under the death and hospitalisation curves to this point for these places is another example of obvious dishonesty in your arguments. This is like when Trump said "South Korea I hear isn't doing that well anymore" when the epidemic was raging in the US and SK was trying to get a daily case count in the hundreds under control.

As well citing the powerful flouting the rules as some excuse to not have rules is doubly dishonest and silly.

Australia's "draconian" rules look pretty good to me, under the draconian rules I am living under I can't go to a comedy club - I could in Melbourne. And if my neighbour lived in Melbourne I presume that the gall bladder surgery that he's had delayed 3 times because the hospitals are full would be done already. I live in place that effectively cancelled Mother's Day on the Friday in a bout of such stupid incompetence that seemed almost perfectly designed to bankrupt restaurants after weeks of warnings from the doctors and the media that the hospitals are literally filling up. The correct path in that instance was obvious, the government refused to take it and now I am in fact still living under draconian rules that could have been relaxed weeks ago if timely action had been taken.

If you want an example of a jurisdiction that has hardly any advantages and many, many disadvantages I would point you towards Atlantic Canada - a highly import dependent economy that is very integrated with the US and the rest of Canada, strained healthcare system at the best of times, and a very old population. Look at their results, moderate travel restrictions, reasonable enforcement, high levels of public engagement. It wasn't even very hard for them to do it, they just had to make the choice and did so.


I’m aware! Deciding to opt in to a vaccine pass system also harms others. Meanwhile we are warned that if you’re vaccinated, you can still transmit. To each their own!

FYI you're trading a known risk (COVID infection, complications, possibly lasting ones, eg. [1]) for a perhaps hypothetical, certainly very unlikely, one.

[1] https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1402614193195393029/pho...


Thanks for the info! This doesn’t change my mind but I appreciate it anyway, and perhaps it will change the mind of some reader who was on the fence.

Natural infection won't provide as long lasting of immunity compared to the mRNA vaccines. And if the vaccine is going to inflame your heart, I seriously doubt it's going to be anything but far worse from the natural infection.

How do you know this? mRNA vaccines are literally so new we don't know what will be in 2 years from now. They were never used in humans.

In comparison SARS survivors from 2003 still have immunity (I believe the same is with MERS).


That isn't quite true. Since sars-covid-2 is new, it follows of course the specific vaccine is new. The RNA/mRNA approach goes back 30 years to HIV research, and the current vaccine has many years of research (directly from SARS-1 and MERS, and possible mitigations). A lot is known about them, regardless of widespread use. We will all undoubtedly learn more.

I'm not replying directly to you, but the duration of the immunity isn't terribly important past a certain point. The vaccine is much, much safer than infection. It prevents overwhelming of medical resources, and can reduce the community transmission levels to an extent that it can end a pandemic. Those are the primary benefits, not better or worse immune memory. That would just be a fringe benefit if it were the case.


Could you please name any other mRNA vaccine that was authorized for use in humans by FDA? I am not aware of any.

I agree that the vaccine is probably safer. However, propaganda that covid19 infection doesn't give you as good immune memory as the vaccine is outright false and should be considered as vaccine misinformation on major platforms.


Can someone explain why this the mRNA vaccine (which tells your body to produce spike protein and thus mimic the virus) produces long-lasting immunity but the actual virus which is being mimicked does not do that?

There was a piece about this on NPR (I think earlier this week, but I can't find it right now).

It sounded like they're making some assumptions because the mRNA vaccine causes most people to produce a higher level of antibodies for a longer period of time vs the real virus. However, antibodies are not the only part of immune system, so it's possible that other parts of the immune system may still be effective.

The real answer is we don't know that yet conclusively, but we do know the vaccine is effective, so until we have a better understanding it's a good idea to be vaccinated regardless (especially if you have any risk factors).


I can't answer the mRNA half (because they're brand new and we just don't have that data yet), but I'm pretty sure I know where the "infection does not create long-lasting immunity" side came from:

Around 9-12 months ago, a study came out that said antibodies from infection last 3 months. They couldn't say any longer though because that study only had 3 months of data. Unfortunately, this was largely reported on as "up to 3 months", making a lot of people think immunity only lasted a maximum of 3 months.

Since then, now that we have more data, further studies have come up that keep extending that duration. Last I recall I think there was one that got to "at least 14 months"..? But these ones don't get as much spread as the original wrong reporting, so it got kinda stuck as "don't create long-lasting immunity".


COVID induced myocarditis has been thoroughly disproven:

https://www.statnews.com/2021/05/14/setting-the-record-strai...


Thanks for the article, an interesting read for sure. It’s nice to see there’s been plenty of follow-up study on this.

Respectfully, you’re wrong to say “thoroughly disproven”. Even the article ends with the suggestion that it’s a side-effect of covid, albeit a rare one.

The article’s position is more that it was overblown to worry about stopping young athletes from competing for fear of myo being a common side-effect as opposed to the ~1% rate the studies have since shown.


My wife died from myocarditis 2 months ago. The only thing she tested positive for was COVID.

The coroner's report however, was quite clear that COVID did not cause her death or the myocarditis and that there has been no such reported case anywhere in the world.

If anyone has information to dispute that I would be very interested to see it. Thanks


Myocarditis is unfortunately very common. There are many causes, including a panoply of viruses for which tests may not exist. That is probably why the coroner's report said what it did.

I'm sorry for your loss.


I’m so sorry for your loss, myo is a terrible illness and so poorly understood by the medical community - even cardiologists seem to have a hard time recognising it.

There’s a good deal of info available in medical journals relating to covid and myo. I’m no doctor though I’ve researched it well since being diagnosed.


I am sorry for your loss. May her memory be a blessing.

I wonder how many other coroners ruled a case of myocarditis to not have been caused by a recent COVID infection because other coroners had not been willing to make the association either?

Based on my personal experience, I'm pretty skeptical of this. I'm 28, healthy (or was previously), and have never previously had any issues with my heart. Got covid last April which came with quite sharp heart pain which seemed to match up very well to descriptions of myocarditis on and off for about 6 months. And I'm only just now getting to the point now where a raised heart beat isn't painful.

You might say it's anecdotal, but something had to cause that.


If you’re in a position to do so, I’d strongly recommend you get checked out if you’re having any kind of chest pain as your heart rate rises.

I lost count of how many times I was told “you’re too young to have any heart issues” before eventually being diagnosed with myo. FWIW I’m younger than you and though mild, my symptoms seem to have taken 9 months to mostly resolve.


I'm also young and have had mild to moderate chest pain (stabbing) that comes in bursts and can last hours. This was after what I thought was a cardiac event in February of 2019, a year before the pandemic, when I suddenly started feeling lightheaded and seeing stars, but the EMS said nothing was wrong. Before that moment I never had any chest pain, and it still comes back to this day occasionally. I must have had an ECG a dozen times since then. I ordered a barrage of tests up to a heart ultrasound and a stress test, and nothing came of it all. I was frequently told it was unlikely anything was wrong because of my age.

It was a miserable period of my life, not knowing if I was going to survive to the next day. The pain is always on the left side of my chest and has fluctuated around various regions of it. Recently it became worse again after taking Adderall, which raised my heart rate, so I still suspect something is wrong with my heart, but it seems that after a year of stressful hospital visits and no definitive answers, I've exhausted everything that would have given me a diagnosis at this point.


Sorry to hear about all that. I know it can be incredibly anxiety-inducing having any heart related issues, particularly at a young age when it's the last thing on your mind.

Frustratingly, it sounds like you've done everything you can. The ECG is extremely sensitive to any change in heart function so that's positive if it's showing normal results (was the only indicator for me - other than an MRI). Obviously you're still experiencing some symptoms, but between the ultrasound and stress test, they'd have seen if there were any structural abnormalities or any issues with function, valves, blockages, etc - so perhaps that's some reassurance.

Not to belittle from your experience in the slightest, but I wonder if you've considered other causes? Easy to think the worst but a surprising number of people end up in the ER suspecting heart attacks with only bad cases of heartburn (acid-reflux). Panic attacks are another common one. I only mention these as I think the anxiety and panic I experienced due to the stress was probably worse than the actual condition.


It's not belittling; I was considering much the same. My conclusion is that I definitely had anxiety during all those episodes, and the anxiety made the symptoms worse to some extent. My first panic attacks I ever experienced were caused by the symptoms early on when I had no evidence this was going to become chronic and relatively benign. I would be relieved if I could explain away my symptoms as mere hypochondria or acid reflux.

But I persisted for a while in the face of that because I felt that my body was trying to tell me something. Pain is a mechanism we've evolved with to indicate various abnormalities. I was willing to bet there was a reason behind the pain, instead of it serving no purpose whatsoever, and especially because this concerned the region where my heart was located, I felt it was urgent, since my heart is one thing that has to function for me to stay alive.

My unresolved anxiety is that I still haven't found the reason, so there has never been any closure for me. Worse, I might not be getting the treatment I need to prolong my lifespan. It's terrifying when considering that possibility in full, so I've had no choice but to put it out of my mind.

I stopped taking a lot of things about how I'm still alive for granted, but I've actually had start taking many of them for granted again, because if I didn't I would become completely paralyzed by fear for entire days. I had to find the balance between worrying about every potential cause of death I could face within the next hour causing desperation and expending my time being unproductive.

I did at least have a few positive outcomes since then. If it weren't for the constant pain and fear I don't think I would have changed my diet and started exercising as much as I did. The exercise was reassuring in a sense because the pain wasn't correlated with how strenuous it was. But now I try to be more wary about what I put in my body. I just hope it ends up mattering in the end. I wish I didn't have to worry about dying suddenly so often.


It might be worth going to a gastroenterologist to check on acid reflux. I was in a similar boat a couple years ago. Sharp chest pains out of nowhere. Heart stuff was ruled out by a cardiologist. I then had an endoscopy which confirmed something was out of whack with the sphincter between my esophagus and stomach, causing strong heartburn. After taking some heavy acid reducers for a few months, it managed to heal up and has been fine ever since. I can relate to the anxiety though. It was pretty intense at times and I had trouble sleeping or focusing on anything else. Hang in there.

Never previously had any issues with your heart... that you were aware of.

Heart issues can go unnoticed until the day you drop dead.


10 years ago I had diagnosed pericarditis from a viral infection. I had Covid in 2020 which caused a similar chest pain during elevated heart rate, it slowly resolved over a few months.

COVID is still an unfolding disaster. I doubt that anybody really understands completely what it does.

I have also been experiencing irregular heart beat and palpitations. Quite possible that I had COVID at some point.

Have you been exercising less since lockdowns started?

I never really exercised much. But heart palpitations are something new, been noticing it for the last few months.

I can share a story about heart palpitations: I started having them in ~2008 without any previous infection (that I know of). Interestingly enough, they were appearing when my heart rate was going down - most noticeably while I was lying in bed trying to sleep, which isn't easy if your heart starts "missing some beats" out of the blue! Went to various doctors, they couldn't find anything wrong with my heart, but couldn't find anything that could help me get rid of the palpitations either. Then, in 2010, I got chickenpox, which at age 36 is a pretty big deal, with high fever, blisters all over the body etc. That took two weeks, and after that my palpitations were gone, and haven't returned since (knock on wood, fingers crossed etc.). So I can only assume that I had some form of myocarditis and the high fever got rid of that too?! No idea...

Anecdotal or not, there have been plenty of otherwise healthy young people reporting everything from palpitations, chest pain to arrhythmia

https://www.reddit.com/r/CovidVaccinated/search?q=myocarditi... [1]

[1] /r/CovidVaccinated

https://www.reddit.com/r/CovidVaccinated/


While concerning, it's difficult to look at anecdata and be able to come to a conclusion. Like in my office, when someone declared that someone stole their phone. Suddenly every misplaced item going forward was reported stolen. So not sure if people are actually having a problem or if they are just 'normal' events that are now attributed to the vaccine.

[flagged]


I'm generally pro lockdown, but your argument there is the literal think of the children argument. It's bad enough to make me want to flip on that position.

In an environment where people (mainly the right) are brushing off vaccines and masking, social distancing, and lockdown mandates because of the notion that COVID is an old folks' disease that mainly affects people with marginal health to begin with, the idea that healthy children are being negatively affected for life is a valid counterargument.

The spike protein causes cellular damage, doesn’t matter if it comes from the vaccine or virus

Yes, but the route in which a vaccination takes place (IM injection into deltoid) should mean that much much less of the spike protein ends up in the heart and lungs vs a natural infection. As well, the overall amount of spike protein in the body will be less.

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/05/04/sp...

“Consider what happens when you’re infected by the actual coronavirus. We know now that the huge majority of such infections are spread by inhalation of virus-laden droplets from other infected people, so the route of administration is via the nose and/or lungs, and the cells lining your airway are thus the first ones to get infected. The viral infection process leads at the end to lysis of the the host cell and subsequent dumping of a load of new viral particles – and these get dumped into the cellular neighborhood and into the bloodstream. They then have a clear shot at the endothelial cells lining the airway vasculature, which are the very focus of these two new papers.

Compare this, though, to what happens in vaccination. The injection is intramuscular, not into the bloodstream. That’s why a muscle like the deltoid is preferred, because it’s a good target of thicker muscle tissue without any easily hit veins or arteries at the site of injection. The big surface vein in that region is the cephalic vein, and it’s down along where the deltoid and pectoral muscles meet, not high up in the shoulder. In earlier animal model studies of mRNA vaccines, such administration was clearly preferred over a straight i.v. injection; the effects were much stronger. So the muscle cells around the injection are hit by the vaccine (whether mRNA-containing lipid nanoparticles or adenovirus vectors) while a good portion of the remaining dose is in the intercellular fluid and thus drains through the lymphatic system, not the bloodstream. That’s what you want, since the lymph nodes are a major site of immune response. The draining lymph nodes for the deltoid are going to be the deltoid/pectoral ones where those two muscles meet, and the larger axillary lymph nodes down in the armpit on that side.”


Does that imply that the difference in hitting a vein with the injection vs. staying intramuscular would be where in the body the protein travels to and causes an immune response?

Nothing is ever that simple, but of cases with effects consistent with the protein being in the blood stream with consequences to the heart and brain, if that were a factor, it would be both testable and avoidable, and provide the explanation people would need to choose to get the shot. If the odds of accidentally hitting a vein and the bloodstream consequences as described lined up, it could move the issue forward.

I have zero expertise in this area, my interest in asking is what would make a more compelling case for getting more people immune, and having a straightforward explanation for the causes of the prior reports of harm would go a long way toward that goal.

Put another way: would injecting directly into an artery or vein have risks that the intramuscular jab would not - and do those risks resemble the anecdotal reports of myo, clots, and deaths?


It's been hypothesized that AstraZeneca's vaccine is more likely to cause clots when accidentally injected intravenously:

https://www.sortiraparis.com/news/coronavirus/articles/24662...


The adenoviruses already attach to red blood cells and have the blood clotting issue with or without the extra genetic load they carry in the COVID-19 vaccine case. It's been known of over a decade and I wonder why no precautions are prescribed before and after the shots.

expect immediate and catastrophic thromboembolism upon IV administration of any current covid vaccine none of them are formulated for IV administration

https://portal.ct.gov/-/media/Coronavirus/Community_Resource...


> As well, the overall amount of spike protein in the body will be less.

Less that an acute infection, probably.

Less than a mild asymptomatic infection? Do we know that? My understanding was that they packed quite a lot of mRNA into the shot in order to ensure a response.


infection is a spectrum, sure, but the public usage of the word "asymptomatic" does not include cardiovascular side effects, that can show up some weeks/months later.

we are observing "asymptomatic" infections followed by cardiovascular problems for some. is it really asymptomatic in those cases?


“Should”

Has it been tested?


Its in testing right now.

I’m listening to the livestream on Bret Weinstein’s channel and they are discussing data that states the opposite including data that shows a concentration in the ovaries.

I'm listening to the same podcast. The source was Pfizer data obtained via FOIA request, it was a Japanese study I think.

edit: this one: https://files.catbox.moe/0vwcmj.pdf

Here's the data in a plot:

https://trialsitenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/Ovaries...


At first glance that plot made me curious, but if you look at the raw data in the pdf, you can clearly see that whoever made the plot was trying to scare people.

They correctly plotted the total lipid concentration for a lot of things, including the ovaries (which stand out on the plot) but completely ignored the injection site (which might be reasonable, but gives a sense of scale), the adrenal glands (which have around the same content as the ovaries), liver (roughly double ), the spleen (a bit more than double).

I'm having a difficult time taking these omissions as anything other than an attempt to spread fear. As a non-expert in biology it seems reasonable that a lot of an injection into my body should ultimately end up in my liver and spleen. The attempt to obscure this probably-natural result (and instead focus on ovaries) is strange.


I’d be interested to see a source. I know of rat models that show a very small accumulation in ovaries, but these rats were afaik given doses in the range of 300x-1000x that of a human. And the accumulation in the ovaries or other regions was still incredibly small, despite the dosage given.



This is the one

>The injection is intramuscular, not into the bloodstream.

Recent research (per No Agenda shownotes) showed that unlike traditional vaccines, Moderna mRNA spread through the bloodstream producing and distributing spike protein in the entire body.


What do you mean by “spread through the bloodstream”?

Of course even in an IM injection, some will end up in the blood stream. The better question is the overall amount that stays within the deltoid vs that that travels elsewhere, and how the compares to natural infection. How does the virus deposit itself around the body vs. how does the spike protein via vaccination deposit itself around the body. As well, with the way the vaccine works, once it hits a cell, that cell will express the spike protein to the surface and that’s it, instead of contributing to further viral spread in the same region.


It does matter because the degree of damage is much greater if you get infected by the virus.

I had a horrible bout of heart palpitations / arithmia starting in may 2020. I worked from since March and was masked the entire time and rarely went anywhere but i suspect i contracted covid some how because the palpitations lasted for months. I'd have them sun up to sundown.

I'm curious if you were prescribed any treatment for myocarditis if you don't mind me asking?

Questions are more than welcome :)

No treatment, just a follow up cardiac MRI after 3 months which showed (thankfully) a resolution of inflammation and normal heart function. Was prescribed low-dose beta blockers if the palpitations bothered me too much though didn’t end up needing them.

As I understand it the typical approach is to wait and see since the majority of cases resolve without treatment - though I’ve noticed in the US it’s more popular to prescribe a low-dose cocktail of various heart meds. Not aware of any clinical data on their effectiveness in mild cases.


>second dose There has been some discussion on that:

Delaying a Covid vaccine’s second dose boosts immune response https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27156859


The vaccine and the virus both expose the body to large amounts of the spike protein.

The interesting table with absolute numbers is on page 18 of [0]. Expected and observed cases are cases of myocarditis / pericarditis here. Crude rate is the number of cases per 1 million administered doses. Use landscape mode if you are reading this from a mobile device, the table is narrow enough for that.

  Age group  Doses       Crude   Expected Observed 
              administ.   rate    cases    cases

  12–15 yrs    134,041    22.4     0–1        2 
  16–17 yrs  2,258,932    35.0     2–19      79
  18–24 yrs  9,776,719    20.6     8–83     196
[0] (PDF) https://www.fda.gov/media/150054/download

Crude rate seems to be observed cases per million doses administered.

So a lot more incidents than expected, but still extremely rare (0.002% of doses).

Edit: missed an extra "0" in that percent, thanks for the the catch everyone who did


But it's only been a few months since administration, will the gap between expected and actual keep growing, or will they eventually level out?

Considering it mentions this is showing up within 1 week of administration, and there are already millions of "doses administered" accounted for in the figures, I wouldn't expect the rate to change significantly either way. I'm not a statistician though.

Post-viral myocarditis / pericarditis usually occurs in the days to weeks (up to about a month, generally) following a viral infection.

For those getting worried like I was, it’s 0.002% or one in 50,000, not 0.02% or one in 5,000.

I don’t have the exact figures to hand but a rough googling seems to suggest a 1 in 100k risk for clotting in the AZ vaccine for young adults which of course, in many countries has been withdrawn for such rates in those groups.

https://www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/a...


I think in general percentages less than 0.1% should be reported as "1-in-XXX". Certainly when I create pages to measure packet loss I put 1 in 50,000 rather than 0.002%

As a data oriented person I would prefer if the percentage is always available, otherwise I have to calculate it to use with other numbers.

For example: (chance of getting covid) * (chance of specific side effect) = chance of getting covid and experiencing side effect.


All percentages should be reported as "1-in-XXX".

The difference (in "certainty", not "risk") between 90% (1-in-10) and 95% (1-in-20) is the same as the difference between 98% (1-in-50) and 99% (1-in-100).


Yes, let's all look at statistics and not recognize these are real people who are developing heart damage from 'safe' vaccines.

A 0.002% risk of experiencing myocarditis due to the vaccine seems a better deal than catching COVID, which brings a ~0.3% risk of experiencing (symptomatic) myocarditis in a (to my non-expert understanding) similar demographic[1]. Many experts assume COVID will become endemic, so this is not a theoretical risk.

[1]: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/...


You aren't factoring in the likely substantial underreporting of this, the fact that this could be a symptomless issue until it isn't (i.e. young athletes suddenly having fatal heart failure), the fact that many people just got the vaccine, the possibility that the onset of this takes longer than they think, the low chance of catching covid in the first place, or the fact that the vaccine doesn't even guarantee protection against covid. Not to mention unknown unknowns.

I'm not anti-vaccines, I'm anti this experimental & rushed vaccine. Buy hey let's create vaccine passports and try to force everyone to get it because of politics.


Its an acute issue that is rare. In this case, its rarer than the normal rate from getting COVID isn't it? The chance of catching COVID is high, not low, without the vaccine. The vaccine does not guarantee protection in the sense that no vaccine does, but thus far it appears to work at least as well or better than any other vaccine. For the health issues, most of your same concerns apply to COVID which by definition carries at _least_ as much risk as the vaccine given its modus operandi. For the symptom in question the risk appears to be lower -- by a LOT -- than if people were to get the virus naturally. Its only being reported at all because the monitoring is good -- did you look at how few cases and the deviation they detected? Its on the order of normal: 100, now: 200, amongs _millions_ of vaccine doses. And presumably that's _after_ they rule out COVID. Per your "not guaranteed protection" line of reasoning, these cases might not even be from the vaccine in the first place, but from people who got COVID right around the same time. I can understand apprehension about new medicine.

In the same vein you might not be factoring in under-reporting of covid cases or the frequency of bad long-term effects of covid.

>I'm not anti-vaccines, I'm anti this experimental & rushed vaccine. Buy hey let's create vaccine passports and try to force everyone to get it because of politics.

The vaccines were not rushed irresponsibly. The schedule was accelerated and they are under emergency use approval, because of the, you know, emergency.

Also the reason governments want you to get it is not politics but economics.


You mean 0.002% not 0.02%

As jb775 said, most cases simply won’t be reported. I wouldn’t be surprised if the actual rate is 10-50x higher.

Thanks! It also says that in the footnote. I added it to the comment.

But this is only reported cases. Most people wouldn't report even if they had symptoms. Others could be impacted without currently having symptoms.

Now prop this data of actual medical conditions created as a result of getting the covid vaccine up against the likelihood of getting covid in the first place, and the likelihood of having lifelong side effects as a result of getting covid. Risk of getting an experimental vaccine substantially outweighs the reward of the "protection" it provides.


Not sure why teh parent post got downvoted - we have plenty of examples right here in the various sub threads of people telling us exactly that. Almost none of all those who wrote a comment with their own anecdote seem to have reported it, many only realizing that there even is anything worth reporting after reading this discussion right here.

For most people it is perfectly normal not to report anything unless it's bad enough that they have to see a doctor. Most people already expect some side effects for a few days since we've been told to expect it, for anyone following the media.

A statement about under-reporting is not automatically "anti-vax".


> For most people it is perfectly normal not to report anything unless it's bad enough that they have to see a doctor.

This is exactly what's making me restless. Young men are the least likely group to see a doctor unless it's really bad. Thus the official statistics may be severely underreporting the real situation.


That's about the same rate as clots in AstraZeneca's vaccine.

So if I'm reading this correctly - that means about 1 in 90,000 people are getting myocarditis that otherwise you wouldn't expect to get myocarditis from the vaccine.

Is that correct, and if so, is that a big deal?


This feels like a pretty lazy anecdote to mention off hand without any context of how these two side effects compare in terms of lethality.

Blood clots from the adenovirus vector vaccines are far more lethal than the myocarditis. A good fraction die because the clot happens to be CVST (in the brain).

The mRNA vaccines seem to be the safest overall, although there is curiously little data coming in from inactivated virus vaccines. I'd be interested in seeing if they cause similar issues as the other two.


Anecdote: I had this reaction to the 2nd dose of the Pfizer vaccine, saw a cardiologist and she mentioned that she’s been seeing this quite a bit after the second dose. Have had to lay low for a month, but it seems like the symptoms are finally passing.

If you don’t mind sharing I’d be curious to hear how you knew something was wrong? If I were a man in my teens or early 20s (or even 30s!) I feel like I would chalk any chest pain up to anxiety or heartburn before I ever even considered the possibility of a heart situation. My understanding is myocarditis is usually not a big deal but it does require treatment and isn’t something you should just “wait and see” if it resolves on its own.

I had this as a side effect of covid last year. You are correct, no medication was given and they won't actually do a biopsy of your heart due to the risk so the will simply wait and see.

It feels like a big deal. I had never had heart issues and it felt like my whole system was unstable. Hard to describe really. I don't know how serious it is, however. The cardiologists just tested my heart, saw that there was no blockage and the blood flow was strong and told me to rest.

edit to add: On the second dose of Pfizer, I felt a minor version of this for about an hour in the middle of the night after a morning shot. No other symptoms beyond a strong immune response.


Good to hear this experience. I also had this as a side effect of a covid infection last year (having never previously had any heart issues). I've just had my first Phizer dose, and this article had me questioning the wisdom of getting the second dose. But I feel like an hour won't do me much harm. It lasted for months with the actual infection.

I call the heart part the bonus round. And same, it took me several months to get better.

I went to the doctor because of general shortness of breath all the time, heart rate spiking during normal activity like standing up, palpitations out the wazoo, and general fatigue. If I felt “sick” or fluish that’d be one thing.. this seemed different.

Anecdote: I too experienced this reaction, albeit after the first dose.

Noticeable but not significant heart pain beginning approximately 4 hours after getting the first vaccine.

Speaking with medical professionals, they said symptoms should improve with time, and they have nearly completely across the 1.5 months since.

Unsure if worth noting, but I had very strong immune responses to both the first and second doses.


Pure, unadulterated speculation:

It felt like the mRNA took hold in both my arm, _and_ my heart. Which given the proximity and paths between, is not entirely surprising.

It felt like the vaccine entered my bloodstream and was taken up, in part, by the heart. Which then started making spike protein and soliciting an immune response.

I'd really love to learn more about this, but haven't been able to find any good resources. If anyone can point me in the right direction, I'm all ears!


This post was interesting to me and would mean that if the shot got into your bloodstream, it could've been mis-administered? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27464226

That is very intriguing.

The location of injection site was spot on. However, I'm unsure if there are other factors at work beyond specifically location


I was also wondering that. There was only the tiniest spot of blood when I got mine.

What kind of symptoms makes one go to a cardiologist? Just curious

I'm 27 and experienced a lot of chest pains and skipped heartbeats earlier this year. One night I stood up quickly, walked a bit then lost consciousness (low blood pressure), hit my head on the way down. I had an ambulance to the ER after that, they didn't find anything wrong during that visit.

I was referred to a cardiologist, had a holter monitor, ECG, and stress test. None of those turned up any issue.

Going by what I've read about this online I suspect I may have had myocarditis from a case of COVID, but I think that would only show up on an MRI, not the tests I got. Luckily the palpitations and chest pain have mostly gone away over the past couple months.

In relation to speculation about COVID and myocarditis cases elsewhere on this page: I doubt my case will be reported because the association between COVID and heart problems didn't seem to be on the radar of any of the doctors I saw.


Arrhythmias are perhaps the most specific indicators that you should see a cardiologist, but chest pain and/or shortage of breath on mild exercise could well be caused by a heart problem. These are some of the symptoms of myocarditis, among other things.

I went to the doctor because of general shortness of breath all the time, heart rate spiking during normal activity like standing up, palpitations out the wazoo, and general fatigue.

I wanted to avoid the second dose but ended up getting it anyways... hope they don't rush vaccine approvals again... might be good in the short run, but if issues come up, it might be bad in the long run.

I had this after COVID in April last year right at the beginning. I suspect it is an immune reaction to the virus not the vaccine itself.

But the Pfizer vaccine doesn't contain any of the virus, unless it's just the immune reaction to the spike protein that causes the problem?

The vaccine produces spike protein and some research suggests that the spike protein itself is the source of vascular system damage. There was a contention that the vaccine spike protein is designed to stay on the surface of infected cells and not freely circulate into the bloodstream in large quantities but we also just don’t know for certain. It could even have to do with how the vaccine is administered and whether it largely affects the lymph system or a large quantity makes its way into the bloodstream.

https://www.salk.edu/news-release/the-novel-coronavirus-spik...


https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/05/04/sp...

Derek Lowe has a post that discusses this.

In short from what I remember, the vaccine is administered in the deltoid, so most of the spike proteins should remain there. Some may travel throughout the body, but overall it is much much less than a natural infection.

That’s why I’m curious to compare myocarditis rates after vaccination to those after infection, because from what we know, natural infection should result in a higher rate of myocarditis than vaccination.


Did they ever confirm this experimentally, or it is just speculation about how it should work? It does seem like spike protein traveling further through the body than we thought it would would explain this.

> unless it's just the immune reaction to the spike protein that causes the problem?

If the problem is inflammation then that seems entirely plausible... I thought that an immune response was exactly what inflammation is


But then it would be caused by untold number of things and not marked out as special.

Maybe having immune system working hard somehow naturally puts strain on cardiovascular systems?

A theory (far from proved, but certainly also nothing I'd consider "disproved") is that the spike protein itself may be dangerous, in which case injecting something into yourself that causes your body to deliberately produce it may not be an unmitigated good.

I don't think we have the data either way to be sure the spike protein is completely harmless, though obviously how dangerous it is is bounded by the fact that many people experience no ill effects. (That is, it obviously can't be super-ultra-deadly, because it's not killing everyone instantly. How dangerous it could possibly be is bounded by the fact that many people have received the vaccine.)


Presumably the effect is also bounded by the fact that it can't reproduce.

Wouldn't that lead to heart inflammation with pretty much every sickness then? And given that the vaccine side effects are often less than a common cold, I don't know if that's particularly compelling.

Along those lines, I am wondering how this compares to other non-SARS-CoV-2 vaccines.

Interesting.

It's also anecdotal, but I have a existing heart condition and experienced no such side-effects post-dose (on either dose (Moderna)).


This sounds more scary then covid. At least from the people who told me how was it when they had the infection, four of my friends to be precise. Did you doctor said about any long term issues or it is too early?

The thing is that some cases of COVID can result in myocarditis as well, not to mention other kinds of damage (such as permanent taste changes, lung damage, etc.). Still waiting on the echo to confirm no long term damage. I'm feeling MUCH better now, compared to even 4 days ago.

Whatever the result, I can't say I really regret taking the vaccine because it _is_ somewhat rare, and the long term side-effects of COVID are just as unknown as these vaccine side-effects. I like knowing that I'm much less likely to be a transmitter of a disease that could be fatal to others.


I definitely had this: got the first shot and felt confident, cocksure that I would have no symptoms at all being healthy and young. Woke up during the night ~8 hours after the first shot feeling a little out of breath, with strong and almost painful heartbeats. I chalked it up to being stressed, but found it strange as I had zero reasons to be stressed that particular week. I connected the dots the next day when I still had this feeling, and talked to a doctor in the family who said it was probably heart inflammation, and actually not that uncommon after the vaccine or covid infection.

I'm still glad I got vaccinated, but given that heart disease is the #1 cause of death worldwide, I'm surprised the ramifications of heart inflammation aren't taken more seriously (if the heart was permanently damaged in a small way, I'd expect it to manifest many years later).


>>I'd expect it to manifest many years later

You're spot on. Long term risks take many years to evaluate.


Dr. Bret Weinstein, Dr. Robert Malone (invented mRNA tech) and Steve Kirsch had a most fascinating discussion on youtube that touches on this, but touches on much bigger direct and indirect issues as well. I'd urge people to watch: https://youtu.be/-_NNTVJzqtY?t=591

This was worthwhile. Not sure why you're being downvoted.

My mother-in-law died 9 days ago, after being on life-support for 2 weeks. All following a sudden onset cardiac arrest 3 hours after getting her second Pfizer shot. She had a fever from the shot, was sitting in the living room watching a movie with family, and her heart suddenly stopped. She was healthy and in her early 60's. The medical team, after a week, concluded it was likely vaccine induced, and reported it to VAERS.

A neighbor of mine, who is 35 year old male, had an almost exactly similar event. Because he was younger, he survived. His medical team also reported to VAERS, and the Mayo clinic is researching it.

The vaccine is generally safe, and you should get it if you aren't immune to COVID. That being said, the effort to prevent vaccine hesitancy has suppressed media reporting on these events, understandably. They are likely more common than we think, but still relatively rare.

MRNA is going to be a revolutionary technology, but we should be honest about the fact that there are going to be some individuals who will experience some extremely nasty side-effects.


> That being said, the effort to prevent vaccine hesitancy has suppressed media reporting on these events, understandably.

This works with toddlers, but not with adults. Suppressing information ultimately leads to less trust, more hesitancy and more conspiracy theories (they were hiding X, what else are they hiding?). It'd be better if they would just be be transparent and upfront from the start.


I agree, but I understand why they are doing this. I think it's a counterproductive strategy, and dislike it. But I'm too tired of being pissed at this point to say much more on it. People in the US, at least, just don't seem to trust others to make good decisions, and this particularly goes for elite academics who dominate public health organizations and government. They treat us like toddlers because, in their minds, compared to them, we are.

Yep. I know of at least five stroke or adverse heart events in my social circle or one hop out, all had been vaccinated recently.

Like you, I maintain that it’s still a lesser risk than COVID... but there seems to be a lot of media/political pushback to just acknowledging the possibility of vaccine problems.


There is also social pushback. I've had a few longtime friends who got angry with me for not remaining completely silent about this. They insist that it's just a coincidence, and since THEY got the shot and are OK, it must be safe, and I'm a horrible person for "spreading fear".

They aren't my friends anymore. I don't have room in my life for people who can't understand nuance or recognize their own cognitive dissonance.


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